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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  April 9, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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>> it is a.m. in new york -- 1 0:00 a.m. in new york. guy johnson is off today. welcome to "bloomberg markets ." -- markets." openings inn job february. a little less than that now 7ming in at 7.0 8 million -- .08 million. a little less than forecast. fewer job openings. get a check of the markets across the globe starting with the u.s. seeing a down day for the s&p 500, down by a half of a percent. 2880 right now. the dow jones industrial average is down even more than that, 0.8%, likely on trade news which we will get to in a moment. two stocks higher in the dow. one of them is disney after
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getting an upgrade at cowan. it is likelysaying to bring some positive catalysts for disney. turner is the best performer in the s&p 500. this after an activist campaign succeeded getting some seats on the board. , buybacks, and better targets on margins. a down day in europe. the dax down 0.7%. performer, airbus, down 1.8%. mid is down more than a half percent. we will get to all of these stories right now starting with trade. the eu with tariffs over the -- on the u.s. joining us is shaun donovan.
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as any of this tit-for-tat, punitive tariffs in preparation on both sides? >> this is something we have been waiting a long time for. the good news is the trump administration is playing by the rules to a certain extent. they are saying they will wait for the wto to decide how much retaliation they can roll out. they also say they think they have $11 billion they want to hit. the timing of this is really interesting in that the european union is getting ready to finish up the terms under which it will launch the separate negotiations with the u.s. on industrial tariffs. this is all part of a broader picture. as president trump tweeted today, he has some broader concerns about the trade picture with the eu. and he wants to address those. for the first time, tweeting out something positive. he sees the wto as one potential tool. vonnie: it all seems pretty
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reasonable when you look at either side. but when you put the two together, we have not solved the steel and aluminum tariffs situation yet. what is the good of escalating things now? shawn: that is the problem. that is what we are hearing from the imf now, a grim forecast for the year. the risk of the trade wars, this is a real reminder of the risk and what they posted the global economy is not going away soon. donald trump has lots of relationships he would like to ruffle. vonnie: is it leverage donald is looking for? payback? divergent? what are the motivations behind this? maybe not fair for the u.s., subsidizing the airplane makers. is this really the right way to go about fixing that? shawn: these are all the big questions. there is no doubt this is a dispute in itself, in isolation, one that has been dragging on that any u.s. at ministry should
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would have taken a similar approach to what trump has done. but it is the broader context that the world is concerned about. donald trump clearly likes to use tariffs. he calls himself tariff man, as we remember. the question we still have, and this applies to china, the eu, japan, which will beginning negotiations with the trump administration next week, is whether it actually gets you a result you could not get in a more civilized fashion if you will. vonnie: remember when the steel and aluminum tariffs went on, the eu took a sanguine approach and decided to say the role of the adult of the room. it does not seem to be doing that this time. billion inpared $11 retaliatory tariffs. shawn: the eu retaliated over the steel tariffs in the u.s. that is why harley davidson got in trouble and had to relocate some of its production overseas
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so they can export to the eu without tariffs there. some other agricultural products have been hit. i think everyone is trying to be the grown up here, but no one can resist. hey, i need you to fight back for me. vonnie: we will speak to you again visiting us from d.c. today and our new york studios. moving out to the fed and treasuries. a special guest with us in studio. we have been of loomis sayles joining us. we have the global growth forecast. extraordinarily disappointing this morning. not that we did not know, but growth is slowing down and in a big way. what can you see for u.s. treasuries in that environment? >> i think the fed obviously is not going to raise rates. the question is, do they maintain their current level? do they continue to shrink the balance sheet? they stopwer is
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shrinking the balance sheet fairly soon, and it is an open question whether or not they want to reduce rates by a quarter at the next meeting. prior to a few days ago, i would have said, no, they will probably hold. now i'm not so sure as the numbers keep coming in. they are in the same situation as the other major central banks. they have a special consideration. if they hold our rates up nelative to the other four, the all we do is pull in more money. that is fine for us for one view, but it is not good for other people around the world. 1998 when thef money fled southeast asia and came over are still there. they are part of the psyche of the fed. it is an open question. i don't know the answer. to whether they should have started earlier, we will never
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know. think the dominant fear on everybody's mind has been pushed to the back, and that is will be billed in a base for inflation? that does not seem to be on the table now. vonnie: tomorrow we may get part of the picture. you are fond of doing extra ordinary well -- your fund doing extraordinarily well this year. last year, what with the trade you put on this year in order to achieve that performance? bonds. what happened last year is a lot of the liquid got marked down sharply in november and december. january, the of prices were creeping back up. our activity was actually low. we did not do a great deal. we had extended and used
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treasuries for that. but that was done in early november. it the taxthey call loss selling. a lot of the bonds being sold were at premiums at times so it was not necessarily tax loss. it was just the market itself. you go through these periods of time. were we buying things? yes. have they gotten away from us on the upside? for the moment, they have. we are not following it. so the item selection is important, but it was the item selection of a year ago, of a year-and-a-half ago that is playing out in the markets. when they say same bonds, new prices, i'm not being cute. at the extremes on credit, for example, you get down in the marginal singles. you find the exact same bonds with a 15 price point swing as hedge funds or whatever you want
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to call them come in and out to track market sentiment. so there is this piling on effect that happens in the market. vonnie: you say item selection is important. what are you looking at the moment? how far do you think the 10-year can go? what else is getting away from you? dan: the easiest one to catch up with is the treasury curve. if you want to buy the 10 year, 30 year, five-year, what have you, you can catch up with that. the tough ones to catch up with are the less liquid corporate. you say, you mean the bottom of the quality scale? no. less liquid. off the run. big difference. you can have verizon by and large. you can buy them when you want to. you can buy some of the at&t bonds whenever you want to buy them. some you can't. they are too far away from being regularly traded. on the credit side, that is where it gets key.
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what you really want is fundamentally a sound situation a year or two from now that is not recognized in the market because it has not taken place yet. launchu want is the minus.e, triple b you say, ok, that is going down. trade the high-yield. they will start to get there. not a lot. but if you know the credit, one appropriate for something that is changing. vonnie: are there sectors where that is more true? dan: it has been true. it has been true. less true now, but it probably will be once again when you get into the entrance area. that is a huge area. the mispricing goes all the way on up on the quality scale and
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all the way on down. it is subject to a common variable, the price of oil. vonnie: yes. dan: but don't forget a lot of those credits are subject to the price of natural gas in the u.s. that has not been too helpful lately and probably will not be going forward. vonnie: what do you make of the aramco deal? looking at it at all? dan: looking at it, confused about it, but not the pricing. itexpected them to price aggressively, and they are. it is going to be an important component of a lot of the different indices. index sensitive, you cannot avoid it. for good reason. for good reason. that offering is as pricey as i have seen in quite a while. you knew it was coming. vonnie: but it is still oversubscribed. dan: exactly. that's the point. one bonds are oversubscribed, it
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is really a good idea not to be one of the subscribers. vonnie: dan, where are the most vulnerable bonds? where in the world's fixed income the most vulnerable? do you see any areas for concern in the u.s., for example? dan: within the u.s. on an industry basis, no, i don't see any overly risky situations because something is going to fall apart on the fundamentals. it overseas, it does not matter. matter.eas, it does not the problem that we have as investors and the central bank, we are trying to assess corporate credit and southeast asia. ink in southeast asia. -- southeast asia. it is difficult. there is a bigger thing going on. the established power, whatever you want to call it.
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it is like clamshells. fed, europeanthe central bank. that is the first clamshell. the second one is what is happening geopolitically with the emerging power, meaning the established power and all the things around that. and then the third one of course is climate change, but you cannot solve that until you get the second clamshell solved. we day-to-day deal with the first clamshell, the central banks. we also have to keep the second one in mind. that second one is the geopolitical thing. the most affected by that is the area of southeast asia. vonnie: are you talking china? are you buying china bonds at all? dan: nope. not at the moment. let me be more hopeful. as i think may well
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happen the context between china and the u.s. somehow, it starts to get south because the outcome if it does not is too horrifying to think of, so people work rationally to solve this. wow, what an, opportunity. you say, why not go there first? it is a thought, and i thought hard about that. right now, you can do that and there are some values there. however, it is too early in working out the relationship between china and the u.s. to do that. and when that starts to look favorable, then i think there is a lot of opportunities. we have analysts in the area. we are doing our work on the credit. we are very hopeful for that outcome. vonnie: i have to get your
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thoughts first on the ecb tomorrow and what we might hear in terms of the next ltro, for example. i want to make time for another thought on the fed. ecb first. dan: tearing applies to the ecb, except it is spelled differently. [laughter] draghi.r mario i'm amazed that he has hung in there so long. -- well, twocern things. he has to learn about the banking system -- he has to worry about the banking system because the rates are killer. two, he has to be looking at what is happening in europe. union, euro came together. now it is pulling apart. brexit is most noticeable. there are areas of weakness. to clearly when you get down to italy and areas like that.
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that, italy started pulling away. you look at spain. what is happening is one part of the country is trying to establish its independence. there, theder in glue, is france and germany. that is showing some signs of stress now. the political fabric in europe, like the political fabric here in the u.s., is starting to pull apart. the center is shrinking while the left and right pull away. that is mario draghi's big problem. bid in theet that market. vonnie: we have to wrap it up, but it is wonderful to speak with you. thank you. we will get more from you very soon. dan: thanks. of loomisn fuss sayles.
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let's check on the bluebird first word news. here is kailey leinz. >> the imf has cut its global growth outlook. it calls for the world economy to grow 3.3% this year. that is down from the forecast in january of 3.5%. tariffse signs higher are weighing on trade. in israel, benjamin netanyahu faces the political fight of his life today. have to decide whether to endorse his brand of nationalism or deny him another term. he is in a tight race with the ex army chief. british prime minister theresa may is looking for a short brexit extension today. she met with angela merkel in berlin. later, she traveled to paris to meet with emmanuel macron. eu leaders want a longer delay from the british departure so it does not disrupt business. talking about ending the impact in parliament.
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global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. leinz.ley this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. some breaking news now. up more than 1% in london trading. we have a settlement at $1.1 billion on u.s. and u.k. probes on sanctions. the charges will take a further and final charge of $190 million in q1 and will pay almost eight $1 billion monetary policy to the u.s. toestigations accorded standard chartered. it is paying $1.1 billion in total on u.s. and u.k. probes on sanctions. another developing story on trade. the wto is saying it is issuing a report on u.s. duties on canada. we will get you the details on those duties in a moment.
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the dollar canada is now unchanged. we have someone weighing in saying he hopes the u.s. and eu trade survive the twitter twitch. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn and this is "bloomberg markets." keeping our eye on several developing stories. let's get a check of the u.s. markets. abigail: we are looking at a bit of a bearish day for the major averages. take a look at the declines. the dow really down. 0.7%. s&p 500 on pace for its first down day in nine days. the risk off tone is confirmed by the fact that haven bonds are rallying.
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the tenure year -- the 10 year yield down low. we are going to see most sectors are lower. moments ago, all 11 sectors were lower. right now, a couple fractionally higher on the bottom. energy down 1.3%. weighing on the energy sector, we have a reversal for oil. take a look at brent, european crude. a little more extreme here for brent. as the lows, down more than 1% right now. down half of a percent after being down earlier. some of this after comments from vladimir putin that he is keeping in mind venezuela and iran around supply. finally, relative to some of the other indexes in the u.s. that are underperforming, we have the transportation average down more than 1%. this as american airlines is down 3.1%. maxs being hurt by the 737
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situation along with the shutdown. the stocks down as well. goldman having a negative view on the memory market, reinitiating their view on kla-tencor.urt -- vonnie: happening right now, steven mnuchin testifying before the house financial services committee on capitol hill. mnuchin telling lawmakers he will follow the law on releasing the president's tax returns. he is addressing 20 of lawmaker concerns, and you can watch the full hearing on bloomberg at live go. this is bloomberg. >> the request for funding was a request that came from dhs for law enforcement purposes. dhs has prioritized different things. ♪
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it is time now for your latest bloomberg business flash. they look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. -- the company reached a
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market value of $28 billion. it wants to expand and areas like eyedrops and glaucoma treatment. has talkeds says it wit worth $7.1 billion. disclosureremature up a luminary discussions. wynn has been seeking more growth in asia because of a slowdown. it is focused on the australian market. stocks lower on the day when the imf says growth is slowing. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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york, i'mve from new vonnie quinn and this is "bloomberg markets." let's check in now on the bloomberg first word news. here is uba alum kailey leinz.
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kailey: let's kick things off on capitol hill. william barr has a timetable for releasing robert mueller's report. he testified before the house committee today. >> within a week, i will be in a position to release the report to the public, and then i will engage with the chairman of both judiciary committees about that report about any further requests that they have. kailey: he also said he will offer some explanations for the material he is withholding. the justice department is rejecting sensitive part of the report with ties between moscow and the trump campaign. a transatlantic trade dispute is getting worse. the european union is preparing to impose tariffs to the u.s.. u.s. said it the would do the same for airbus. for saudi aramco's first
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offering was unprecedented. it received $100 billion in orders. a rare situation for a state-owned company. all of this mark dayton around from last year 1 wall st and institutional investors shunned saudi arabia after the murder of jamal khashoggi. --sia will keep working with moscow is cautious about oil production. vladimir putin spoke in st. petersburg. with opec and are willing to work to joint solutions. i would be cautious. we are prepared to continue cooperation. however, whether that would be the decrease of the output or maybe that would be keeping the level, i'm not ready to say that yet. kailey: global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz.
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this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. can we take a second? because it is a historic date today, a day after the uva championship win and you are an alum. i'm wondering if you knew this was going to happen? what was the reaction? kailey: i felt it from the beginning. they were number one in my bracket. vonnie: please. i don't believe that for a second permit is that true? kailey: it is true. i have absolute faith in the team. vonnie: i don't know if you put money down, but someone did. he obviously made money betting against the crowd. uva and got picked 48 out of 63 right. kailey: thank you. vonnie: a very busy day in washington as well with house lawmakers holding separate budget hearings with william barr and steve mnuchin. following it is
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all live from capitol hill. in actual fact, both mnuchin and barr are getting questioned about separate subjects. let's begin with william barr and the robert mueller report. what has he suggested to the committee so far? kevin: just behind me, william barr saying he is fully prepared to release the robert mueller investigation within a week. his works "within a week." what we do not know is precisely what will be redacted from the 400 page report, not including appendices or indexes or precisely who will be able to obtain it first at the public release of that. no question, attorney general barr facing these types of questions as a separate congressional subcommittee yesterday urging special counsel robert mueller to testify publicly before congress as well.
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that was going on right behind me inside of this congressional hearing room. flash over to the other side where steve mnuchin is testifying before a subcommittee as well in the house. i can tell you he has already said he is going to be trying to comply with his lawyers's advice on whether or not to release the president's tax returns. just as he was walking into the hearing, he was briefly addressing us reporters and said -- waiting in rather on the tweet suggesting he would raise goods, on european secretary mnuchin said "this is not a trade war." vonnie: jean-claude juncker in europe called the president's tweet a twitch. something else ongoing that may not be getting as much publicity because everything that is happening today, but top executives from cigna, humana are also testifying before the
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senate finance committee on prescription drug pricing. democrats are concentrating on secrecy. what else can you tell us? kevin: three words, pharmacy, benefits, managers. this is a particular area in which there could be bipartisan consensus to get to some type of deal on lowering the cost of consumer drug pricing. speaker pelosi and president trump have signaled in recent months this might be a rare area where republicans and democrats can work together on. no doubt the ceos of the drug pricing companies facing congressional pressure today. vonnie: all right, kevin. thank you. you can watch all these hearings and complete coverage on bloomberg by using the terminal function live go. kevin also spoke a little earlier with senator cory gardner, a republican from colorado, on trade and other issues including new legislation aimed at curbing federal overreach on deciding the best
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approach to marijuana policies. let's have a listen. >> this is a bill not focused on legalization as some approaches to marijuana have been, but a bill that deals with the current challenge we have between the conflict in federal and state laws. the bill that we have introduced statehat if the deceit -- decides it wants to legalize marijuana, it basically carves itself out of the federal prohibition. kevin: the federal prohibition has made a lot of uncertainty, especially for financial institutions in terms of whether or not they can get involved. ultimately, some would argue that leads to safety concerns. sen. gardner: it has created a lot of uncertainty and black-market concerns what you did not have them if the government handle this appropriate leaf from the beginning. a $2 billion cash economy. you have $2 billion of cash floating around in armored vehicles and warehouses. it needs to get into -- out of the shadows and into
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transparency. kevin: people don't fully understand exactly what that means. you literally got this legalized in states like colorado and california and others. they are literally having to put cash in armored cars. sen. gardner: with a paramilitary force basically tried to protect this cash from people who wish to rob or steal. this is a big challenge. this is not going away. that is my point to congress. we cannot keep our heads in the sand on this. let's address this properly. kevin: president trump would sign it? vonnie: he would -- sen. g ardner: he would sign this. kevin: ok, but all of this would ag's officey if the would not label marijuana as a drug. sen. gardner: it certainly could do that. a couple of different approaches. it sounds like they are waiting for congress to take that step because they don't want to internally. there is a number of ways to do
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this. the approach that senator warren and i have is one that has achieved the most support, bipartisan support. because it is not about legalization. you are not making a determination whether you want to legalize marijuana nationally. you are not making a determination on the scheduling issues. you are saying if your state makes a decision, it is different than federal law and we will respect that state's decision to do that and it will be fine and in compliance instead of out of compliance with federal law. kevin: switching gears to u.s. and china trade policy. where do things stand? where do you want to see things end up for president trump and president xi finally whenever they meet? sen. gardner: the global trade coalition has really woken up to the practices of china when it comes to trade over the past decade. this morning, there are reports the european union has grown more and more frustrated with china. they got some agreements in place a year ago that were going to be exited by china, but now
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they are frustrated that china has not stopped some of the issues. it is a concern the u.s. continues to carry on and that i'm concerned about. i don't believe in tariffs. i think it hurts our economy. it is a tax on the american consumers. we ought to join with that we european colleagues and say to china, the european union, united states, our partners in southeast asia, we will stand up to china and organize in a cooperative way against china to make sure they change their behavior. that is more economically beneficial than tariffs. kevin: president trump is signaling he would raise tariffs against the europeans as well. sen. gardner: this is a dangerous economic policy to have tariffs. i don't like it. we should negotiate, get coalitions together of like-minded countries and behaviors. when it comes to tariffs, it is destructive and breaks up a supply chain you may never be able to get back. vonnie: that was kevin cirilli speaking with senator cory gardner, republican of colorado. some breaking news. saudi aramco has set aside the
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debut dollar bond sale at $12 billion. we know the order book was in excess of $100 billion. saudi aramco setting aside $12 billion. whole thing called aggressive, saying this is a pricey event seen in a while. it is time now for the stock of the hour. shares of pharma companies plummeting today after the fda dismissed the new drug application. emma chandra is your with more permit down by a quarter of the market value. in fourggest drop years. lost $500 million from the market value. the application for the drug which would be a treatment for a form of epilepsy, which begins with -- the application would not sophisticate leak -- the
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application was not sufficiently complete. the company will meet with the fda because they want to see how two take this forward. -- to take this forward. the projected revenues. the pipeline is this drug and its various applications. vonnie: analysts have been pretty quick to act on this. emma: that's right. if you take a look at the bloomberg, i have the function. you can see at least 10 analysts taking action last night and this morning. one downgrade to neutral from guggenheim. the rest slashing the price target. the white line coming down in tandem with the stock price. a lot of the analysts pointed to this move to the fda amounting to a delay. they say the drug will eventually get approved but they have to have more files and that will create a delay. that could force delays to filing for other treatments for the drug. it is why you still see why we
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are looking at a buy. vonnie: emma chandra with overstock of the hour. thank you for that. coming up, the chief economist of the imf cutting the outlook today for the lowest since the financial crisis. -- to the lowest since the financial crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪
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live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn and this is "bloomberg markets." breaking a few moments ago. saudi has set the aramco deal, $12 billion of a debt offering in five parts. once again, saudi has set the deal. we know the order book was of $100 billion in orders.
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the price is now set and the sale is at $12 billion, the offering in five parts. the imf cutting its outlook for global growth to the financial crisis. by thene is joined now chief economist. tom: thank you so much. works princeton and the well-known known. she joins us now, the director of economic research. good morning. congratulations on the world economic outlook that really goes into the nuance of the global economy. within that, you call it a delicate moment. discuss that. why is this so delicate in 2019? >> we are projecting a weakening of the global expansion from in 2019.018 to 3.3% that is 3.6% to 3.3%.
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we are expecting a recovery in 2020 back to 3.6%. however, we see this as a delicate recovery because it is going to rely on recovery in argentina and turkey and many stressed economies over the world. it will rely on not slowing faster than we expect in europe, similarly for china. continue to be many downside risks. tom: right. gita: there are risks to trade. tom: the risks are plural, as you mentioned. what is the certitude of recovery? up brexit, u.s. and china trade, et cetera. that does not give you a lot of servitude of recovery, does it? gita: on the other hand, we certainly had more accommodative monetary policies by the u.s. government. bank, wee and central
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have also seen lots of stimulus from china. those policy interventions could help growth. as long as things stay stable, we expect the economy to recover to the end of this year. tom: some of the stress jon outo my colleague pointing germany as an example. part of this moving from multilateral to bilateral to trump letter will trade. what does your world economic outlook and your financial stability report, your fiscal monitor -- what do they say about the unique trade policy of the president of the united states? gita: the trade tensions that came up in 2018 between the u.s. and china is an important factor that weighed negatively on growth to the end of 2018. we are certainly seeing some improvement there, but we continue to be concerned that trade tensions muscle over to other sectors and other countries.
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for a simple, the auto sector, that will bring in more countries and affected within supply chain. that is something we flag as a very important risk. happen, thatto would be a negative knock on growth. tom: i pulled a chart out from 20 years ago as my turn of the year, the dynamics of trade deficit and fiscal deficit in the united states. that we can see a stabilization of the u.s. trade deficit? or within the combination of your world economic outlook, do you assume a wider u.s. trade deficit? the nature of what is going to happen with trade deficits in the u.s. depends on the different levels of aggregate demand in the u.s. relative to other countries in the world. given the fiscal expansion and stimulus that was put in place would keep, that
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deficits in the u.s. higher right now compared to other countries. similarly in china, the fiscal stimulus there will reduce their suffrage relative to the world. arehink these macro factors very important going forward in determining the size of deficits. typically when you put tariffs in this, trade divergent to other countries in the world as opposed to reducing the size of the deficit. tom: your report speaks of good news of stability in china, stability in the uneven growth. you have unique perspective, particularly on indian economics. coming out of the election, can india actually advanced emerging-market gdp? can india get really head of or 150nd pick up 100 basis points of economic growth? is then india, it largest fastest-growing economy in the world.
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7%. our projection it will grow north of 7% in 2019 and 2020. we have seen the arrival of investment in india and conjunction being strong and the fact that oil prices came down to the end of 2018 is helping india. going forward, we have the elections soon. ist we experience with india economic policy tends to be insensitive to who is in policy. reforms tend to go on, which is why we are optimistic about the future outlook. tom: i want you to defend the phd's at the imf. i know this is something sensitive. the imf always a piñata of forecasting economics. gita, can the imf extrapolate out economic growth and performance, or is it more of a static analysis?
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is fraughtasting with uncertainty. we make our best projections given the information we have at this point. and for many countries, we have information from their budgets about where fiscal policy is headed. we have information from monetary authorities about the projected path of interest rates. that enters our focus. that is information that goes into our focus. that is dynamic in nature. of course, over a year, many things can happen, including national disasters. tom: this was lovely. we did a brexit free interview, which is always a joint. looking forward to seeing you thursday and friday at the imf meetings. vonnie: fantastic, tom. looking forward to the rest of your interviews from the imf meetings as well. that is tom keene. a reminder, hearings on capitol hill as we speak. steven mnuchin, william barr
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both testifying. drug company ceos talking about drug pricing. you can watch any or all of these hearings on live go. this is bloomberg. ♪
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live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn and this is "bloomberg markets." it is time now for futures in focus. joining us is brian. no end in sight to oil moving higher. what are you targeting? it is right below $64 a barrel right now. >> yes. we are getting overbought here. seems like we are in a 50 to 60 range. why are we this high? we have temporary supply problems with libya, venezuela. we have cut off the iranians. those are temporary things. we don't have a supply problem
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because the saudis have turned it up. i don't see demand picking up anytime soon. why would i say that? the u.s. will hang in there. our recovery is going well but we are threatening mexico with closing the border. we are threatening the europeans with tariffs because of the airbus subsidies. and we are fighting with china. all of those things will suppressed demand, and we are at the top end of the range. the market is quiet this week because of everything going on politically and headlines. vonnie: what about the dollar index? feels like it is moving but not perhaps as much as it normally would on headlines from trade libya conflict. brian: right. the federal reserve controls interest rates. they also control the price of the dollar. the federal reserve made a big pivot in december when we had all the disruption and so much static in the statistics. oh my gosh, it is a recession, the wheels fell off. no. the numbers come back that we are doing better, but the fed is very cognizant of the price of
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the dollar. certainly the white house wants the dollar to be cheap. we are going to have a lot of crosscurrents here. the one thing we are waiting for, brexit is tomorrow. the thing we have been waiting years for may be decided tomorrow. if you are focusing on energy, is there demand and marginal demand? right know, i don't not know where that will come from. earnings season in the u.s., so we will get a better picture what the projections are for growth for the rest of the year. but it is hard to see what will compel it to go higher. vonnie: brian battle, thank you. we are going to be talking brexit our. in the meantime, here is a look at the markets. ♪
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♪ vonnie: there is 30 minutes left
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in the trading date in europe and we are 90 minutes into the u.s. session. guy johnson is off today. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check the markets now. we begin in the u.s. where we are seeing lower markets for the major indices. we are still at 2881, so there is not huge conviction behind this drop. in one todayiction that is up 11%. turner has decided to replace 4 directors to buy back shares, to initiate dividends, and to increase those margins. all in all, a pretty big day. 1.3%, getting more upgrades on the street. i wanted to point to crude oil futures. we are down, but look where we are pricewise.

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